UN: World Population Expected to Reach 10.3 Billion in 2080s
2024-07-21
LRC
TXT
大字
小字
滚动
全页
1The United Nations is predicting the world's population will reach 10.3 billion in the 2080s.
2The prediction appears in a new U.N. report.
3The report also suggests that the population will then slightly decrease to about 10.2 billion by the end of the century.
4John Wilmoth is head of the U.N. Population Division, which prepared the report.
5He told The Associated Press (AP) that there is a high probability that the world's population will reach its height, or peak, within the current century.
6He said the probability of that happening is about 80 percent.
7Wilmoth described that estimate as "a major change" compared to predictions from 10 years ago.
8At that time, the estimated probability was about 30 percent.
9U.N. Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development Navid Hanif recently spoke about the report at a briefing.
10He said the expectation that the world's population in 2100 will be lower than previously thought has "important policy implications for the sustainability of our planet."
11The world's population has continued to grow during the past 75 years, from an estimated 2.6 billion in 1950 to 8 billion in November 2022.
12Since then, it has increased about 2.5 percent to 8.2 billion.
13The report notes the population has already peaked in 63 countries and territories.
14These include China, Germany, Japan and Russia. Within this grouping, the total population is estimated to drop 14 percent over the next 30 years.
15In another 48 countries and territories, the population is predicted to peak between 2025 and 2054.
16Those countries include Brazil, Iran, Turkey and Vietnam.
17For the remaining 126 countries and territories, the population is expected to increase through 2054.
18The countries in this grouping include the United States, India, Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan.
19The report said these areas would see their populations peak in the second half of the century or later.
20For nine of these nations, the U.N. estimates the populations will double between 2024 and 2054.
21Wilmoth said these differences are notable.
22But he said, "it's important to understand that all populations are following a similar path."
23The U.N. report suggests the earlier population peak is predicted for several reasons.
24These include lower fertility levels in some of the world's largest countries, especially China.
25Estimates for China suggest the country's population will drop sharply, from 1.4 billion in 2024 to 633 million in 2100.
26The report noted that worldwide, women are having an average of one less child than they did in 1990.
27In addition, the average number of live births per woman is below 2.1 in over half of all countries and territories.
28This is a level experts have identified as being necessary for a country's population to keep its size without migration.
29Wilmoth said the report shows that nearly 20 percent of the world has "ultra-low" fertility, with women having fewer than 1.5 live births.
30In China, the current number is about one birth per woman.
31I'm Bryan Lynn.
1The United Nations is predicting the world's population will reach 10.3 billion in the 2080s. 2The prediction appears in a new U.N. report. The report also suggests that the population will then slightly decrease to about 10.2 billion by the end of the century. 3John Wilmoth is head of the U.N. Population Division, which prepared the report. He told The Associated Press (AP) that there is a high probability that the world's population will reach its height, or peak, within the current century. He said the probability of that happening is about 80 percent. Wilmoth described that estimate as "a major change" compared to predictions from 10 years ago. At that time, the estimated probability was about 30 percent. 4U.N. Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development Navid Hanif recently spoke about the report at a briefing. He said the expectation that the world's population in 2100 will be lower than previously thought has "important policy implications for the sustainability of our planet." 5The world's population has continued to grow during the past 75 years, from an estimated 2.6 billion in 1950 to 8 billion in November 2022. Since then, it has increased about 2.5 percent to 8.2 billion. 6The report notes the population has already peaked in 63 countries and territories. These include China, Germany, Japan and Russia. Within this grouping, the total population is estimated to drop 14 percent over the next 30 years. 7In another 48 countries and territories, the population is predicted to peak between 2025 and 2054. Those countries include Brazil, Iran, Turkey and Vietnam. 8For the remaining 126 countries and territories, the population is expected to increase through 2054. The countries in this grouping include the United States, India, Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan. The report said these areas would see their populations peak in the second half of the century or later. 9For nine of these nations, the U.N. estimates the populations will double between 2024 and 2054. 10Wilmoth said these differences are notable. But he said, "it's important to understand that all populations are following a similar path." 11The U.N. report suggests the earlier population peak is predicted for several reasons. These include lower fertility levels in some of the world's largest countries, especially China. Estimates for China suggest the country's population will drop sharply, from 1.4 billion in 2024 to 633 million in 2100. 12The report noted that worldwide, women are having an average of one less child than they did in 1990. In addition, the average number of live births per woman is below 2.1 in over half of all countries and territories. This is a level experts have identified as being necessary for a country's population to keep its size without migration. 13Wilmoth said the report shows that nearly 20 percent of the world has "ultra-low" fertility, with women having fewer than 1.5 live births. In China, the current number is about one birth per woman. 14I'm Bryan Lynn. 15The Associated Press reported this story. Bryan Lynn adapted the report for VOA Learning English. 16_________________________________________ 17Words in This Story 18implication - n. a result or effect that seems likely in the future 19sustainability - n. the quality of causing little or no damage to the environment and therefore able to continue for a long time 20fertility - n. the quality of being able to produce young